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Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute
12 November 2019


  • Unemployment is 1,306,000, down by 8,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline down by 23,000) and the unemployment rate is 3.8%, the same as last month and down by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter.
  • The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,218,000, and is up by 33,000 on last month. The claimant rate is 3.4%.
  • The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 997,000, up by 33,000 on the quarter, representing 14.5% of the youth population (up by 0.5 percentage points on the quarter).
  • Youth unemployment (including students) is 500,000, and has fallen by 2,000 on the quarter.
  • There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy.
  • The employment rate is 76.0% (up by 0.2 percentage points on last month’s published figure and down by 0.1 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

Learning and Work Institute comment:

The labour market figures published on 12 November confirm that the labour market is clearly slowing, despite a fall in unemployment.

Duncan Melville, chief economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented:

‘While unemployment fell in the three months to July to September, this was not down to rising employment which also fell, following last month’s published quarterly fall, but to rising economic inactivity as people of working age left the labour market. The level of vacancies also fell for the ninth month in succession and now stand at their lowest level for two years. The level of redundancies has also been rising for the last 12 months and reached 118,000 in July to September - up over 40 percent in the year. The claimant count rose again in October and by the largest amount since July 2011. The evidence clearly points to a worsening in labour market conditions.

This slowdown in the labour market is feeding through into wage growth which fell to 3.6 percent in September, after allowing for inflation real wage growth also fell to 1.7 percent in September. Both headline wage growth and real wage growth after inflation appear to have peaked in June and to have moderated since in response to softening labour market conditions.

In marked contrast to the above numbers, in the month employment rose and both unemployment and economic inactivity fell. In our view these figures are more likely to be a blip than the herald of an improvement in the labour market. The economic growth numbers released yesterday showed annual output growth slowing to just 1.0 percent and that the level of economic output actually fell in both August and September. This suggests that the labour market is unlikely to turn upwards anytime soon.’

Paul Bivand, associate director for statistics and analysis at Learning and Work Institute, said:

'The claimant count continues to accelerate upwards. At the same time, the numbers of people claiming Universal Credit and/or Employment and Support Allowance rose, parallel with the survey estimates of inactivity due to long-term sickness and disability. The estimates for lone parent benefits continued to fall, faster than the pattern for survey respondents who were inactive and looking after family. However, the Universal Credit figures do not currently permit us to identify the numbers of lone parents with full work requirements (equivalent to JSA lone parents under the previous system), so these are not included in Chart 14 below.'

Employment decreased by 58,000 between April to June 2019 and July to September 2019. In the last 12 months employment increased by 323,000.

Unemployment is down by 23,000 between April to June 2019 and July to September 2019. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the quarter.

Economic inactivity increased by 53,000 between April to June 2019 and July to September 2019. The inactivity rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 20.8% in the quarter.

The national claimant count rose by 33,000. This takes account of normal seasonal effects but adjusted figures are not published for local areas. The actual number of claimants, nationally, rose by 29,800 in the month to October. Therefore, it should not be surprising that figures for local areas will show smaller rises compared to the national picture.

Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly fall. There are still 500,000 unemployed young people, and 353,000 (5.1% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education.

The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Universal Credit or obseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 36.6%.

A total of 57,000 were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default. This number is up by 9,000 this quarter. Self-employment reduced by 4,000 this quarter. The number of employees fell by 49,000 in the quarter. Involuntary part-time employment is down by 50,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 10.3% of all part-time workers.The proportion remains much higher than the 7.4% in 2004.

Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)

The latest unemployment figure is 1,306,000. It has fallen by 8,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate was down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%. chart 1
Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance

The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance is now 10.3% (134,000). chart 2
Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24)

Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 8,000 from last month’s figure and is now 117,000.

The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 9,100. The count fell by 900 this month. chart 3
Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)

Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 237,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 138,100.

chart 4
Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age

The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.8% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation.

The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.8%.

For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%.

The quarterly change is zero for 18 to 24 year olds, down 0.1 for 25 to 49 year olds, and up 0.1 for the over-50s.chart 5
Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training

The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (997,000) has risen in the past quarter by 33,000, or 3.4%. The rise was largely among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training rising at a lower rate.chart 6
Chart 7: Youth unemployment

The number of unemployed young people has risen by 6,000 since last month’s figures, to 500,000.

Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 6,000, to 230,100. There are 129,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 36.6% of all unemployed young people who are not students. chart 7
Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count

The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count increased by 33,000 in October, taking the total to 1,218,000. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment is up by 29,800 to 1,196,4006. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today.

Learning and Work Institute's seasonally adjusted estimate has risen by 28,200 to 1,222,000. chart 8
Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey

Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell for the ninth month running, to 800,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. chart 13
Chart 10: Unemployed people per vacancy

There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. chart 14
Chart 11: UK employment

Employment increased by 60,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,753,000. chart 15
Chart 12: Employment rate in the UK

The employment rate has fallen by 0.1 percentage points over the quarter, to 76.0%. chart 16
Chart 13: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits

The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose over the last quarter, as did the benefit figure.

This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Universal Credit planning for work and those with no work requirements (both out of work) (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. chart 17
Chart 14: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents

The survey figures (showing those looking after family) fell slowly while benefit measures fell more sharply.

The benefit figures include lone parents remaining on Income Support as lone parents and Universal Credit claimants in the planning for work group. The latest DWP data does not show any still on Jobseeker's Allowance.

This chart shows claimants of out of work benefits as lone parents (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). chart 18
Chart 15: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2019

This quarter, six regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the West Midlands and the North West. The employment rate fell in six regions, led by Scotland and Wales. chart 19
Chart 16: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2019

Six regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. Six showed a worsening. The rises were led by the North East and Scotland. chart 20
Chart 17: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2019

Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point rise in the inactivity rate. Eight regions showed rises in inactivity, led by Wales and Scotland. chart 21

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If you have any questions, contact Paul Bivand
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