Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 16 April 2019
Learning and Work Institute comment: |
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Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,343,000. It has has risen by 4,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although changes in the claimant count now look less safe as a guide to changes in jobseeking. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9%. |
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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 24.7%; (331,000). |
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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 9,000 from last month’s figure and is now 129,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 15,500. Most young claimants have been claiming Universal Credit since the full roll-out of Universal Credit Live Service, so these JSA claimants are those with work records giving rights to contribution-related JSA, or those with more complex claims. The count fell by 400 this month. |
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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 277,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 138,200. Adult unemployed are now increasingly claiming Universal Credit, so these JSA claimants are those with work records giving rights to contribution-related JSA, or long term unemployed with family dependants. |
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Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.3% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.0%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is within rounding errors for all three age-groups. |
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Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (916,000) has fallen in the past quarter by 32,000, or 3.4%. The fall was among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training rising to 345,000. |
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Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has fallen by 7,000 since last month’s figures, to 493,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 4,700, to 201,320. There are 151,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance, 43.7% of all unemployed young people who are not students. |
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Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count is up by 28,310 in March, taking the total to 1,066,170. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment rose by 38,647 to 1,102,320. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning and Work Institute's seasonally adjusted estimate is up by 26,820 to 1,069,450. At this time of year, claimant numbers normally increase for seasonal reasons, before later falling back. |
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Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – new claims and leavers The number of new Jobseeker’s Allowance claims fell by 7,800 this month, to 15,900. Meanwhile the number of leavers also fell, by 20,700, to 35,300. As Universal Credit is now fully rolled out, new Jobseeker's Allowance claims will be for the National Insurance Contribution-related JSA benefit, which can be received as well as Universal Credit (in the same way as Unemployment Benefit and Income Support worked before 1996). |
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Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted) These measures show a decrease in off-flow for claimants at all lengths of unemployment, except the longest term. The proportion staying beyond three months has risen to 49.2%, a historically high figure. These are Jobseeker's Allowance statistics only, as Universal Credit statistics do not yet permit this type of analysis. |
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Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 13.1%. This is likely to fall over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has fallen by 0.8 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are based on those in Chart 10, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds. |
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Chart 12: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell slightly this month, to 852,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. |
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Chart 13: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may rise slightly next month. |
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Chart 14: UK employment Employment is up by 7,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,721,000. |
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Chart 15: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points over the quarter, to 76.1%. |
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Chart 16: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness remains broadly stable, while the latest benefit figures (August 2018) show falls. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. The benefit figures do not yet include Universal Credit full service claimants. |
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Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) are trending down while benefit measures are more volatile. Income Support estimates have decreased, and those for JSA are now falling. The data source for benefits information has changes as DWP have stopped producing a specific table for lone parents claiming JSA. The numbers now are JSA claimants with a dependent child and no partner. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming JSA (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). |
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Chart 18: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – December 2018 to February 2019 This quarter, 9 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by Northern Ireland and the West Midlands. The employment rate fell in 3 regions, led by the North West and Wales. |
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Chart 19: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – December 2018 to February 2019 7 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 5 showed a worsening. The rises were led by Wales and the West Midlands. |
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Chart 20: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – December 2018 to February 2019 Overall, there was a 0.3 percentage point fall in the inactivity rate. 4 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the North East and London. |
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